Rookie QB’s haven’t fared well against the Patriots. In the Brady/Belichick era, rookie QB’s are 5-15. Among those winners by rookie QB’s are Ben Roethlisberger, Mark Sanchez (lol), Colt McCoy, Russell Wilson and Andrew Luck. The Patriots haven’t lost a home game to a rookie QB during that span going 8-0)
Former NFL QB turned CBS hero analyst Tony Romo details exactly why Rookies have a tough time against the Patriots, and it has to do with analytics:
“A big part of that is when Bill O’Brien goes in and watches the Patriots tape, he goes, ‘OK, so tell me on third and 3, what’s his tendency? What’s the 65-percent play call?,’” Romo said. “And it’s like, ‘Well, it’s 51-49 man vs. zone.’ ‘OK, well what’s the blitz?’ ’51-49.’ That’s where he gets you. He self-scouts himself better than anyone in the league. Belichick is gonna make sure that call was a throwaway to help his self-scout for numbers for the future weeks.”
Veteran quarterbacks who have faced the Patriots and Belichick before might look past those analytics and only focus on the plays that “matter” in a game. But Watson will be making just his second career start and faces an uphill battle to try to beat Belichick.
Essentially Belichick throws off the percentages by running plays that screw with the analytics. This is like some crazy 4D chess type stuff. Most of the time the Patriots are winning these games and the 4th quarter isn’t even close, so the Patriots can then throw off all the percentages. Simply put, it’s genius.
Thumbnail photo via Troy Taormina/USA TODAY Sports Images